Updated Iowa Caucus odds: Post-Iowa Freedom edition


After having an entire day to size up most of the field in one place together for the first time, as well as talk to key activists and sources, it’s time to update my Iowa Caucus odds since last November’s debut.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 2-1 (was 4-1)
If Mr. Cruz’s speech and the crowd reaction to it were based on a best-selling book it would be titled “The Five Love Languages.” Mr. Cruz credibly and inspirationally touched on every key theme of the current zeitgeist, and is clearly the favorite of the conservative activists. If there were a straw poll at this event, he would’ve won it.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 4-1 (was 5-1)
This was Mr. Walker’s coming out party, and I heard mixed reaction to his speech from those I talked to. However, several governing conservatives (those holding electing office or aspiring to) were buzzing about Mr. Walker throughout the event. He also just hired David Polyansky, who helped guide Joni Ernst’s successful U.S. Senate victory in Iowa.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 5-1 (was 4-1)
Mr. Cruz’s ascendancy obviously comes at the expense of others, and Mr. Huckabee is among them. The 2008 caucus champ is still well-liked, but he doesn’t have a lock on the state’s evangelical multitude. I know several former Huckabee supporters who are leaning Cruz and/or the next candidate on the list.

Read more: WashingtonTimes

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