In 2004, George W. Bush won re-election, in part, because he was able to increase his percentage of the black vote in the key states of Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, Bush increased his percentage to 16% from 9% in 2000. Similarly, in Florida, the Black vote for Bush rose to 13%. Additionally, Bush won 16% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Nationally, Bush was able to win about 12% of the black vote, again an increase from the 2000 election. In a very real way, Black voters re-elected George W. Bush.
The statistics are important because since the Nixon landslide of 1972, no Republican presidential candidate has managed to win more than 12 percent of the Black vote. John McCain managed a paltry three percent of the Black vote. (In fairness to McCain, he was running against a god.) Mitt Romney did slightly better against god with six percent. Perhaps the most important statistic of all is that in the 2012 election, Black voters outnumbered white voters for the first time in history. How important is the Black vote?
I’m no statistician, but it seems clear to me that the Republican Party doesn’t need 90% of the black vote to win elections, the Democrats do. If Republicans can capture 16% of the Black vote, Democrats begin to get nervous, 20% and Democrats are in a panic. If Republicans can capture 25% of the Black vote, Democrats will not win the White House or the Senate for a generation! THAT is how important the Black vote is!
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