My 2014 Iowa Election Predictions


by Steve Deace

Over the years my record predicting elections is pretty good. In fact, this is one of the few things I’m pretty good at. For example, check out how accurate my primary predictions were back in June, and you’ll see in the Iowa U.S. Senate and 3rd Congressional District primaries my predictions were almost perfect.

So what’s my secret?

It’s simple, really. I have pretty good sources, do my own research, and then I remove all of my own biases, preferences, and prejudices as I analyze what all the information I’ve gathered means. Instead of what I want or don’t want to be true driving my analysis, I simply look at what actually is true. Unfortunately, this is a rarity in our business, where slappies for either side of the debate pollute the data and analysis becomes propaganda. Like anytime you hear about someone bragging about their “internal polling” it means they’re really behind, and anytime one side complains about “skewed polls” it means they’re about to lose.

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